Texans vs. Colts odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions from top model on 92-63 run

The Texans will be looking to shake off a loss when Houston hosts the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football. In what was supposed to be a matchup of potential MVP candidates last Sunday, Lamar Jackson left Deshaun Watson and the Texans in the dust as the Ravens throttled Houston, 41-7. The third-year quarterback will try to atone and get a critical win in the division race against the Colts, who cruised past the Jaguars 33-13 and hold the AFC South tiebreaker. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium. Houston is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Texans vs. Colts odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 45.5, off one from the opener. Before you make your Colts vs. Texans picks, you should see the Thursday Night Football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 12 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 30-20 run that dates back to last season. 

It's also on an incredible 92-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season, The model has ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Colts vs. Texans. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated an against-the-spread pick that is hitting in more than 50 percent of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the NFL betting lines and trends for Colts vs. Texans:

• Texans vs. Colts spread: Houston -3.5
• Texans vs. Colts over-under: 45.5
• Texans vs. Colts money line: Houston -192, Indianapolis +164
• Texans: RB Carlos Hyde is averaging 8.0 ypc the past two games.
• Colts: QB Jacoby Brissett has seven TDs and no INTs in four starts against Houston.

The model knows Watson threw for 308 yards and a touchdown in a 30-23 loss to the Colts last month. He has an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, who had nine catches for 109 yards and a touchdown in the loss in Indy and has 75 receptions this season. Running back Carlos Hyde is 11th in the league with 769 rushing yards, while Duke Johnson has 327 and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season. 

Houston is 5-2 against the spread this season against teams on equal rest, and the defense will need to make plenty of plays. The Texans have 14 takeaways, including nine fumble recoveries. Whitney Mercilus has forced four of them, and fellow linebackers Zach Cunningham and Benardrick McKinney each have recovered two. Mercilus also has a recovery and an interception.

But just because Houston has a high-powered offense doesn't mean it will cover the Texans vs. Colts spread on Thursday Night Football. 

Brissett settled back in after missing time with a knee injury, but it was the running game that dominated against the Jaguars as the Colts improved to 12-5-1 against the spread in their last 18 games in November. Mack contributed 109 yards before leaving Sunday's game, but Jonathan Williams stepped in to rush for a career-high 116 yards on 13 carries as Indy amassed 264 yards on the ground. Running back Nyheim Hines plays a central role in the passing game and is second on the team with 30 receptions for 224 yards.

The Colts are 6-0 against the spread in their last six conference games and 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams in Houston. Indianapolis' defense allows 96.8 yards per game on the ground and will try to make the Texans one-dimensional. The secondary is banged up, but the Colts should be able to get to Watson. They have 25 sacks this season, led by Justin Houston with eight, and Watson has been sacked 31 times. 

So who wins Colts vs. Texans on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread can you bank on in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Colts vs. Texans spread you should be all over on Thursday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.